Shots from "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" (Image: Deadline)
2025 has been one of the most groundbreaking years for cinema in recent history. With original hits like "Marty Supreme," "Mickey 17" and "Weapons," as well as critically acclaimed sequels such as "Wake Up Dead Man! A Knives Out Mystery," "Zootopia 2," and "Mission Impossible: Final Reckoning," theaters were alive and thriving due to the diverse and quality output. However, with Oscar season approaching, two films have the most debate on who’ll bring home the golden statue for Best Picture and Best Director: "Sinners" and "One Battle After Another."
"Sinners" released on April 18, 2025, taking place in Clarksdale, Mississippi during the Jim Crow era. It follows twins and former Al Capone gang members Smoke and Stack as they open up a juke joint in their hometown, and are soon threatened by vampires who seek their own, sinister version of fellowship. Directed and written by Ryan Coogler of Black Panther fame, the film exceeded critical and box office expectations, grossing 369 million on a 90 million dollar budget and scoring a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes. Furthermore, the film broke the record of most Oscar nominations awarded to a single film, earning an unbelievable sixteen nominations. "Sinners" is lauded for its innovative directing and writing, weaving complex socio-political themes and extensive character work into a highly entertaining horror blockbuster.
"One Battle After Another" was released several months later on September 26th, 2025. The film takes place in an alternate modern day, and follows ex-revoluntary Bob Ferguson (Leonardo Dicaprio) as he races across the country to save his only daughter Willa Ferguson (played in a breakout role by Chase Infiniti) from the clutches of the evil Colonel Lockjaw (Sean Penn). Penned and directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, the film was also a hit critically and financially, earning 208 million and a 94% on rotten tomatoes. Critics and audiences alike praised the film for its urgent timeliness, in part due to its commentary on immigration and the abuse of government organizations such as ICE. In addition, the performances from Dicaprio, Penn and Infiniti were seen as some of the best of the year, with the former two securing Oscar nominations.
The question is, which one will take home the grand prize at the Oscars? For the past decade or so, there’s almost always been a clear and obvious frontrunner for Best Picture. Yet, the market isn’t as sure this year. Kalshi has "One Battle After Another" at a 74% chance of winning and "Sinners" at a 14-20% chance. While Kalshi's numbers don’t paint a picture of an equal chance, there’s far more at play here. Best Director and Best Picture usually are awarded to the same film, yet my guess is that this might be one of the only times there’s a split. Sinners is running on the narrative of breaking industry projections and records, from box office to Oscar nominations, all while being a person of color directed horror film. In fact, Coogler joins a small group of only six other African American directors to be nominated for the award. If he were to win either, or both, it would be a ground breaking day in Hollywood’s history.
To play devil’s advocate, "One Battle After Another" has time on its side. Namely, time setting. By placing itself in the modern day and tackling very sensitive issues that continue to be relevant and plague our nation, a best picture win for "One Battle After Another" would deliver a powerful message to the powers that be about the injustices that are continually going on in our country. Furthermore, Paul Thomas Anderson is a writer/director who’s been lauded for his expertise yet consistently robbed when it comes to awards season. A best director/best picture win for him is considered long overdue.
My prediction is that it will be one of Hollywood’s only splits between Best Picture and Best Director – Best Director will go to Ryan Coogler, on account of Sinners being his second original feature in the industry and proving him as a multi-talented voice to reckon with in the industry. The success of "Sinners" comes solely from his creative vision, as it’s a story he created entirely by himself. "One Battle After Another" will take home Best Picture as a way to cement it into the pop culture lexicon as an essential American film that not unabashedly tackles current societal issues in ways many other films are too scared to do, but also aren’t able to do so articulately. Because of its bold and deep exploration of these complicated and tumultuous topics through the heartfelt lens of a father trying to move Heaven and Earth to bring back a daughter he loves, I conclude that "One Battle After Another" will be the ultimate winner of the 97th Oscar’s Ceremony.
Both films will win big when the Academy Awards air on March 15. I predict both will win their respective screenplay categories as well, and can easily see both obtaining multiple other wins throughout the night. Ultimately, I believe Ryan Coogler will walk away with a Best Director award and the production team of One Battle After Another will win Best Picture. Place your bets!